Welsh independence campaign sets six-year referendum countdown

YesCymru has set 2032 as its target for a referendum on Welsh independence, launching a six-year campaign to build public support and increase political pressure for a vote.

The pro-independence organisation announced the target at the National Eisteddfod, which is taking place in Llantwd, north Pembrokeshire.

The campaign marks the first time one of the main organisations in the Welsh independence movement has placed a specific year on its ambition to hold a referendum.

Newly appointed YesCymru chair Rob Hughes said the movement needed a clear objective around which supporters could organise. “I think we’ve had enough of wandering through life without giving us and our supporters and the people of Wales something to have as a focus.”

He added, “I think what we need to do is persuade the people of Wales that an independent Wales will provide a better future for them and for the generations to come.”

Over the next six years, YesCymru says it will focus on increasing support for independence, addressing practical questions about how an independent Wales would operate, and building political pressure for a referendum.

The organisation said it wants to turn existing support for independence into a wider demand for a public vote.

Hughes said the campaign would also set out a positive vision for an independent Wales. “Let’s build a country that is fair, tolerant and welcoming, and use the skills, belief and ambition of the people of Wales to create a country that works for all of us, for our children and for the generations to come.”

The Pembrokeshire Herald reported that the announcement was made at Eisteddfod y Garreg Las in north Pembrokeshire, against a changed political backdrop following Plaid Cymru’s historic victory in May’s Senedd election.

However, 2032 remains a campaign target rather than an agreed referendum date. YesCymru cannot call a referendum itself, and the Plaid-led Welsh Government has not committed to holding one during the current Senedd term. The next Senedd election is expected in 2030, meaning a 2032 referendum would fall around halfway through the following parliamentary term.

That timetable could place pressure on Plaid Cymru if it is returned to government in 2030, forcing the party to decide whether its long-standing support for independence should become an immediate programme for government.

The 2032 date also carries historical resonance. It will mark 750 years since the death of Llywelyn ap Gruffudd, known as Llywelyn the Last, near Cilmeri in 1282 during Edward I’s campaign in Wales.

The same year has also appeared in previous Plaid Cymru thinking on independence. The party’s 2020 Towards an Independent Wales commission report discussed an indicative timetable under which a referendum could take place by 2030, followed by negotiations that could lead to independence by 2032.

YesCymru’s latest campaign instead frames 2032 as the year in which Welsh voters should be asked whether that process should begin.